multi-family – Nathan Holdings | Real Estate Investment https://www.nathanhold.com Experienced real estate investments Wed, 24 Aug 2022 14:45:05 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7 https://www.nathanhold.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/cropped-favicon-32x32.png multi-family – Nathan Holdings | Real Estate Investment https://www.nathanhold.com 32 32 Budgeting for a Renovation https://www.nathanhold.com/budgeting-for-renovation/ Wed, 24 Aug 2022 14:45:05 +0000 https://www.nathanhold.com/?p=85450 The post Budgeting for a Renovation appeared first on Nathan Holdings | Real Estate Investment.

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When considering purchasing a value-add multifamily apartment property, your first step should always be deciding what needs to be done with the building to increase investor returns. In these cases, the best sponsors adopt a balanced approach aimed at minimizing risk and achieving the strongest possible ROI.

A wide variety of renovations and improvements can be made to any given property, so it can be tough to figure out which will genuinely attract renters and which will be nothing but a money pit.

Our decades-long experience in real estate investments and management, with a specific focus on multifamily properties, has enabled us to develop a simple acquisition process optimized for returns. Using a systematic approach, we assess all potential acquisitions to identify the most profitable options and calculate the overall impact they are likely to have on ROI. For each property, we decide which areas need improvement, how much it will cost, and when the improvements should be made. We then apply this knowledge to our budgeting process to align all decisions with our commitment to providing good value for our residents.

Understanding what upgrades to perform on a building usually means gaining deep insights into current market and area tenant demands. This article will review the most crucial aspects of that process.

Strategy, strategy, strategy

The first part of the value-added process is the acquisition strategy. There are three keys to success at this level: conservative estimates, risk management, and locating an undervalued property. By acquiring the property at the best price, we can improve its chances of success and also offer the investor an important safety margin.

Any given deal is subject to market timing and local nuances, so value-driven acquisitions are more important when looking at overall strategy. Factors beyond a real estate company’s control can disguise bad underwriting in the short term, but strategic errors will always surface over time. Letting your investments be driven by sentiment rather than strategy will have lasting consequences for any investor, especially in extreme market conditions.

Much has been written on the topic of market timing. However, industry veterans who have navigated recessions will tell you to never force a deal and never compromise your underwriting standards to get a deal done. Lowering your standards will inevitably cost you money in the long run.

Balancing maximum returns with risk management

We take a balanced approach to reducing risk and ensuring a reliable return on investment.

When aiming to achieve the highest returns from a multifamily property, there are several considerations to bear in mind. A comprehensive underwriting process, market analysis, in-depth local knowledge, and thriving professional connections are all integral to better returns. Then, a pre-acquisition study enables us to develop, scope costs, and schedule a post-acquisition renovation plan tailored to the property, so we can invest smarter and more reliably.

Identified target demographics, predicted growth trends, and the median income household of residents in the area are just a few factors that guide decision-making regarding the project’s scope and which improvements to make.

In fact, this is why we focus on multifamily properties. Compared to other investment classes, like industrial, retail, or office investments, these properties show excellent risk-adjusted returns with relatively stable long-term cash flows.

Multifamily is also known to have less downside risk during recessions due to the stable tenant base in most major markets. When potential homeowners become renters during economic downturns, the demand for apartments increases, and investors reap the rewards.

Why it’s important to analyze market conditions

During the first property screening and subsequent due diligence, learn everything you can about the market and competitive properties. Value is relative to the market in which it is calculated, and property owners should know what options are available to consumers in that market.

You’ll need to know what the competition is doing, what the marketplace is bearing, and what market segment the property falls into. But, you also need to consider how the property is positioned in the market. Although not every property has to be the best in town or offer the lowest rents, at Nathan Holdings, it is vital for our communities to provide good value for our residents, no matter the rental price or the number of amenities.

When studying the market, the primary goal is to determine its parameters and see what types of upgrades (if any) will work for the property in question. It is essential to recognize that the market dictates strategy, not the other way around. Renovations that return the most significant ROI always correlate with the market in which the property is located. It is crucial to understand that the market dictates strategy, not the other way from it. Renovations that return the most significant Return on Investment usually correlate with the property’s location. For example, installing smart home technology packages only adds value if competitors in the area also offer these features or if research has shown both demand for such upgrades and rent hikes from current tenants willing to pay more for them.

Deciding which renovations to make

Intelligent, informed decisions are the key to successful renovation projects. As mentioned above, it is necessary to perform thorough market research before purchasing a value-add asset because how much you can make on an investment largely depends on the asking price for similar renovations in that area.

We use two important criteria at Nathan Holdings when deciding whether to invest in a specific upgrade:

The first is the upgrade’s ROI. We like to see capital expenditures on unit upgrades produce at least 15% ROI. For example, if an upgrade costs $12,000, we want to see at least a $150 per month increase in rent to justify that investment. A $150 monthly rent increase yields a $1,800 annual increase, which is a 15% return on the original investment.

The other is how the upgrade contributes to enhancing the overall value of the building. When determining the equity multiplier of an investment in CapEx, we calculate the rental increase gain from a renovated unit and multiply by the cap rate projected in the sale of the property. Using the example above, in a 5-cap market, a $150 per month increase, yielding a $1,800 increase in annual rents, would add $36,000 to the property’s value. Compared to the initial cost of the renovation, $12,000, this would be a multiplier of over 3X on the original investment.

Repair vs. renovate

Determining when to repair or renovate involves the assessment of the project. Which strategy will lead to an upgrade in efficiency and which will only lead to an upgrade in appearance? Is cosmetics more important than energy efficiency? Does the existing feature perform well enough to merit its repair? These are the questions that should guide your decision-making process. Understanding what materials in today’s market are worth renovating and which ones are better off repaired is vital.

What’s the difference between repairing and renovating?

A repair typically involves restoring an existing feature to working condition. A renovation, on the other hand, entails removing the old feature and installing something completely new.

Assessing cost-effectiveness through the lens of the holding period is a wise choice. In many cases, renovations are often simpler, and repairs are cheaper. It would be best if you chose which option best suits your investment goals, planned exit date, and risk tolerance.

Information such as when it was built, what it is made of, and how well it still works – can give hints about whether the thing you are looking at needs to be replaced or isn’t going to last much longer. It is also essential to take note if the look of an apartment unit features old-fashioned designs and see if any updates could bring in new tenants and charge higher rates for rent.

Technology advancements have led to many useful and efficient improvements in many facets of construction. Unfortunately, many manufacturers’ “planned obsolescence” model has also led to an increase in disposable products built to last just five or so years. This also needs to be taken into account.

Cosmetic/aesthetic renovation

The aesthetics of a property add to its value through increased appeal to current and prospective residents. These can include painting, landscaping, and updating interior and exterior finishes – changes that might seem trivial but will significantly affect property performance, including vacancy and rental rates. These upgrades also help keep tenants happy, which increases retention.

Red Bay Apartments – Before and After:

Red Bay apartments - before exterior renovations Red Bay apartments - after exterior renovations

Structural & major renovations

In general, renovations involving structural or major changes require the most involvement. These types of renovations can include replacing a roof, repairing foundations, adjusting mechanical systems, switching to high-efficiency toilets, improving kitchens, replacing floor coverings, and providing common area amenities. As this type of renovation is the most intensive, it can often result in the highest return on investment. Upgrades to in-room amenities are generally recognized as yielding the greatest ROI.

For example, we recently completed water, energy, and waste management improvements in one of our properties. This included installing new high-efficiency toilets in 500 bathrooms across all 288 units, achieving a reduction of over 30% in water consumption.

Operational upgrades

An underperforming property can also be improved by upgrading its management. Property management is the key to unlocking value through, for example, raising the rent to market levels, collecting back rents, and adding new revenue sources such as valet trash services to improve waste management and curb appeal. These operational issues should be addressed case-by-case to ensure the property runs smoothly and tenants remain satisfied.

 Increasing cash flow

A tiered, gradual strategy for upgrading multifamily assets gives property owners a way to both retain current residents and earn increased revenue through renovating units by group (building, floor, unit type) and upping the rent.

The impulse to act quickly and aggressively by upgrading everything at once is frequently thoughtless in more ways than one. It’s easy to forget that a multifamily property is more than just an asset classification. It’s a home to dozens or hundreds of people. You need to strike a delicate balance between preserving ongoing cash flow from existing residents and encouraging turnover for enhanced asset improvements and value appreciation when adding value to a property.

Value-adding renovations and improvements that appeal to current tenants, attract prospective tenants, and help keep a property’s occupancy rates healthy will be significant for maintaining profitability over time. Doing too much too quickly is a risky strategy. Going past what the market can handle may cause property owners to hold assets longer than planned, compensating for low cash flow stemming from periods of high vacancy rates caused by them.

Instead, experienced owners will contact on-site management, discuss planned upgrades, and see if the required rent increases are compatible with local market conditions, easing the potential risk.

Improvements may fluctuate in cost

The cost of improvements varies with economic cycles. The past year has seen material and labor shortages as well as a surge in overall construction costs, making it much more challenging to plan projects. Many renovators have thought to have paid around 15-20% more than they would have the previous year.

Macro-economic changes like inflation, supply chain disruptions, and interest rates will cause costs to fluctuate from those anticipated initially during initial underwriting. Financial discipline is necessary. These conditions require all upgrades to be planned carefully, with solid communication between owners, contractors, and suppliers. Remember that a schedule may still be disrupted, despite companies’ promises. We have encountered various economic swings over time at Nathan Holdings and are ready to avoid downswings by anticipating possible challenges.

For example:

Construction Materials Producer Price Index by Commodity is up ~35% in the last 24 months.

Construction Materials Producer Price Index

Check-in on progress

In renovation projects, there is often a focus on speed rather than costs and the appropriate processes. It is always vital to check in to ensure things are still going according to plan, which means keeping an eye on your budget.

Continued market research and communication with the on-site management team will inform you about the success of your recently renovated units and how to price and market them. It’s essential to stay informed so you can adjust your strategy as needed.

For example, if demand is higher than expected, you may want to increase rent. If construction costs are higher than expected, it may be time to revisit budgets. Or, if there’s an opportunity to rent or sell at a premium to recoup costs quicker, that’s something you should consider. If everything is going according to plan, continue monitoring until all projects are complete.

Conclusion

When determining the costs of renovating a potential investment, the most beneficial method is thoroughly analyzing the asset’s current state and understanding the demographics and competition in the local submarket.

A pre-acquisition study enables us to develop, price, and schedule a renovation plan deal tailored to post-acquisition, so we can invest smarter and more reliably. This is our practice and tradition at Nathan Holdings.

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Inflation and Interest Rates: The Future Outlook for the Economy https://www.nathanhold.com/inflation-and-interest-rates-the-future-outlook-for-the-economy/ Mon, 15 Aug 2022 11:56:55 +0000 https://www.nathanhold.com/?p=85434 We are currently living through one of the most intricate macroeconomic environments ever. When even the experts are unaware of what comes next, and what is the best approach to overcome this inflationary environment. The recent Fed hike of 75 basis points shows the determination of the central bank to curb or control inflation. If...

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We are currently living through one of the most intricate macroeconomic environments ever. When even the experts are unaware of what comes next, and what is the best approach to overcome this inflationary environment.

The recent Fed hike of 75 basis points shows the determination of the central bank to curb or control inflation. If we compare historically, we see that in past inflationary periods interest rates had to be above the CPI, in order to meaningfully reduce inflation.

What this leads us to conclude is that the goal of the Fed is to maintain inflation within a controlled range, thus revealing their concern that an excessive rate hike could potentially cause an enduring recession with far worse consequences.

Additionally, the Fed is also looking at other indicators such as the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), which not only shows the effect of inflation but also conveyed changes in consumer behavior.

How interest rates affect inflation and the housing market

 

Interest rates are nothing more than the cost of capital, they directly influence how an economy performs. If the cost of borrowing is higher, then consumers will avoid credit, and as interest rates rise, so do personal savings as the returns generated by bonds, treasuries, or CDs increase. However, rate increases also have an impact on borrowers and even financial institutions. There are typically two types of loans – fixed or variable rates. Borrowers who choose a variable rate are affected by interest rate increases, which end up costing them more to repay their debt since the interest-bearing debt is higher. This also affects lenders, who might be more restricted to lending capital, and some borrowers might even become delinquent, which leads to defaults.

We have started to see this trend in the housing market, with several experts predicting a decline of 5% over the coming year.

The lower housing prices are just a reflection of the higher cost of borrowing and the increased mortgage rates as the 30-year fixed rate approaches 6%. This is starting to be reflected in the mortgage applications numbers which hit a 22-year-old low. Similar to what happened to the stock market this year, the housing market could face a correction over the coming year.

Will inflation persist?

In the midst of this scenario, it is important to determine whether or not inflation will persist. Although the Fed seems determined to control inflation, there are several signs that it could persist for years to come.

Shelter inflation seems to be lagging, and so the higher rent prices should be reflected in the CPI over the coming months. The current increase in rent is also pricing some Americans out of a home entirely. Additionally, some supply chain bottlenecks are still unresolved, specifically when it comes to energy commodities.

Europe is facing one of the most challenging winters, and we might even witness widespread blackouts in Germany. This puts additional pressure on natural gas prices, which have hit the highest level since 2008.

Despite the slight decline over the last month, oil prices are still elevated, and the supply is terribly constrained which should continue to put additional pressure on the expenses of families.

Despite the inflationary pressures, unemployment has remained low at 3.6%. Despite this, several companies are having a hard time finding workers, and this creates additional inflationary pressure in the form of wage inflation.

On top of this, there is certainly political uncertainty surrounding the current administration. Biden’s approval rating is at its lowest.

Democrats have also shown their discontentment with the president, with 75% of Democratic voters assuming they want someone else leading the country.

With the upcoming midterms, we are looking at potential political instability that could continue over the next 2 years.

Recession indicators

 

Recession indicators have also sounded the alarm on a possible recession over the coming year.

The Shiller P/E which measures the price of stocks relative to their earnings in the past 10 years, is still at elevated levels despite the decline of the major indexes this year.

The Buffett recession indicator, which is nothing more than a ratio between the total stock market value and the GDP, is still high.

Finally, the yield curve which has predicted most of the past recessions compares the interest on treasuries with their maturities. Typically, the longer the maturity on a treasury, the higher the interest paid, but when investors sense there is a recession on the horizon they bid up usually the 5 to 10 year treasury, which ends up having a lower interest than shorter term treasuries. The yield curve couldn’t be more inverted, which shows that investors are skeptical of the outlook for the coming years.

Can the Fed lower rates?

While it has been argued that the Fed could pivot, and take a dovish stance in 2023 to avoid a recession, there is still a lot that can happen. Given the unprecedented macroeconomic environment, even some of the most respected experts are unsure what exactly will happen.

For instance, Jamie Dimon has warned the public of a hurricane coming, and that are currently big storm clouds that could dissipate or not.

It also seems like the current administration is looking closely at the situation, and despite the publicized independence of central banks, it is clear with the previous and the current administration that the White House is closely following each of the Fed’s decision. As it can have a direct impact on their political influence and the general public’s perception.

A new economic reality

 

It seems fair at this point to conclude that the macroeconomic experiment we have all been living dubbed MMT ( Modern Monetary Policy) does not work as it is supposed to. On paper it looks great, deficits don’t matter and all it takes to revive the economy is to cut rates and inject liquidity into the system but its all a myth. What we have come to learn is that these decisions, have unwanted consequences, namely inflation.

While we may debate the technical definition of a recession being two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the fact is that despite some positive macroeconomic indicators coming from the labor market, there is a threat of a serious downturn.

The Fed currently has a treacherous way ahead. While it may want to increase interest rates, to end inflation once and for all, it might not be able to do so. It would cause a recession, that could put the US at risk of default.

To understand the depth of the situation we are in we have to go back to the great ifnancial crisis of 2008. During the great financial crisis of 2008, governments all around the world took on debt in order to bail out the private sector.

This time around, the level of debt is so astronomically higher that most governments are unable to have the same intervention they did in 2008 without causing undesired effects, such as prolonged inflation, or even risking defaulting on their sovereign debt.

Pushing rates too high, would decrease consumption, and it would certainly affect tax revenue. On the other hand, the interest on treasuries would also increase significantly. Putting the country in a situation where it might default, or where the Fed needs to keep buying treasuries in order to keep the debt markets operating.

The Fed currently owns ~23% of the national debt, and while foreign investors continue to buy US treasuries, their ownership relative to the total debt is declining.

Another question comes to mind amidst all this:

How is the Fed supposed to unwind its massive balance sheet that is close to $9 trillion with higher rates?

There is no clear answer to this question, and despite the Fed’s plan to shrink its balance sheet, it needs certain conditions to meet this objective. This is why an interest rate hike induced recession could threaten the US ability to issue treasuries, and it would put additional pressure on the Fed to acquire treasuries, while trying to shrink its balance sheet.

Can the Fed raise rates?

What most people do not seem to realize is the deep-rooted effect created by nearly a decade of near-zero interest rates had on how the economy operates. Additionally, the Fed has previously tried to take a hawkish stance, namely in 2018, which culminated with a total pivot. If the Fed was unable to raise rates during 2019, which had planned to do, what makes some experts think that it can do it now when the conditions are much worse.

The bottom line

 

The elephant in the room is the fact that governments around the world need inflation, to decrease their sovereign debts not in nominal terms but in a percentage relative to their tax income.

This is why there will be no significant attempt at reducing inflation in the near term, and all the Fed and other central banks will try to do is to control inflation within a certain range, at the expense of retirees, savers, and lower income families. Raising rates too high could cause a global recession.

There is no Paul Volcker this time around, to save us from ourselves. And even if Paul Volcker himself was the Fed chair, he would certainly be unable to have the same approach he had over 40 years ago.

The conditions are simply not the same, and the world today is far more dependent on global trade, and each central bank decisions has repercussions worldwide. The current conditions warrant caution, in one of the most unpredictable macroeconomic scenarios we will ever experience.

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The Benefits of Active Property Management https://www.nathanhold.com/the-benefits-of-active-property-management/ Sun, 03 Apr 2022 09:03:28 +0000 https://www.nathanhold.com/?p=85291 The post The Benefits of Active Property Management appeared first on Nathan Holdings | Real Estate Investment.

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Leave Nothing to Chance

When you’re investing in multifamily properties, the right property management company can make the difference between making a profit or losing money on your investment.

An active property management strategy ensures that your investment properties remain productive and profitable, saving you time and effort while increasing the value of your assets.

Download

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TV Interview: What To Consider When Choosing A Real Estate Investment Firm https://www.nathanhold.com/tv-interview-real-estate-investment-firm/ Mon, 21 Feb 2022 14:46:57 +0000 https://www.nathanhold.com/?p=85250 The post TV Interview: What To Consider When Choosing A Real Estate Investment Firm appeared first on Nathan Holdings | Real Estate Investment.

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TV Interview: What To Consider When Choosing A Real Estate Investment Firm

Investors are looking for alternative forms of investments beyond the stock market.

Welcome to the world of passive income through a real estate private equity company.

Instead of dealing by yourself in finding a property that is a good fit for you, managing it daily, getting finance, finding a tenant, collecting the rent, dealing with lawyers, tenants and more, you can invest through a private equity company. When investing through a private equity company, you benefit from a whole team working just for you.

 

For those interested in real estate investing, listen to our team’s interview at “Inside the blueprint”:

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Florida Economy https://www.nathanhold.com/florida-economy/ Sun, 10 Oct 2021 12:48:32 +0000 https://www.nathanhold.com/?p=85062 The post Florida Economy appeared first on Nathan Holdings | Real Estate Investment.

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In the current economic climate, real estate has received increasing attention as an asset class. Florida’s multi-family industry was one of the most resilient sectors in the face of the pandemic, showing strong rent gains and high occupancy.

Multi-Family Industry in Florida

62,000 New Renters Moved to Florida in 2020. More Americans are now choosing to move to Florida than ever before.

Demand for multifamily rentals in Florida increased post-Covid-19 due to population growth from people migrating from other states, mainly New York & Texas. Household formations in Florida have increased by over 165,000 in 2020, which represents more than 62,000 new renters. 
In commercial real estate, population growth and job growth are key indicators fueling rent growth—and Florida has those two trends going notably.

Moved into Florida

With no state income tax and low cost of living, more companies are moving their operations to Florida.

In August, Amazon announced plans for six new buildings in Florida. A new robotics fulfillment center and five new delivery stations will create more than 2,000 full-time jobs in the Sunshine State. 

Earlier this year, Pfizer announced plans for a ‘global capability hub’ in Tampa, leasing more than 100,000 sq. ft. of office space with 600 new high-wage jobs. Over the last three years, more than 70 financial firms have relocated from New York City to South Florida, including hedge fund giant Elliott Management, who announced moving its headquarters to West Palm Beach. 

Announcements from large companies proceed to happen across the state, strengthen the population growth that is driving multifamily demand. Florida, structural, long-term, and sustainable economic growth has been persistent over the recent years. As GDP growth is a strong driver of real estate prices and rents, real estate investments provide a direct way to participate in the strong growth of Florida’s economy.

Minimum Wage

Last November, Florida voters passed a ballot proposition to raise the statewide minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026. 

Currently set at $8.56, Florida’s minimum wage will increase to $10 an hour on September 30th, 2021.

According to the Economic Policy Institute, this measure will raise wages for around half of Florida’s workforce (as 50.1% of people currently earn less than $15 an hour).

Raising the minimum wage strengthens investors’ ability to raise rent accordingly in lower-income areas. It also significantly reduces the risk of missed rent payments, as tenants will have more money in their wallets on a regular basis.

Florida’s proactive yet thoughtful economic planning, creating balanced initiatives to boost the economy. The state has hit on a winning strategy that makes Florida a tremendous real estate investment market.

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